From The Telegraph:
- Yevgeny Prigozhin heads the Russian Wagner mercenary group which appears to to have left Ukraine and is marching towards Moscow to topple Putin. Prigozhin claims his forces shot down a Russian military helicopter in Ukraine after it fired on civilians.
- Prigozhin accuses the Russian military of shelling his fighters and launches what appears to be a coup against the Kremlin.
- Prigozhin states that his units, leading an assault in eastern Ukraine, have entered the southern Russian region of Rostov and taken down a Russian helicopter.
- The claim lacks specific details and cannot be independently verified.
- Prigozhin accuses Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, of ordering strikes on his units despite their movement among civilian vehicles.
- The Russian military orders Wagner troops to return to their bases and puts troops on high alert nationwide.
- Prigozhin claims to have 25,000 fighters ready to battle the Russian army and calls on regular Russian soldiers to join his coup attempt.
- Ukrainian forces increase attacks on the frontline to exploit Wagner’s coup attempt, according to Russia’s Ministry of Defence.
If accurate, this is a huge development with worldwide ramifications.
UPDATE 1:
The coup appears real. Putin says “This armed mutiny is treason and a mortal blow.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-coup-latest-this-armed-mutiny-is-treason-and-a-mortal-blow-says-putin/ar-AA1cXLaZ
UPDATE 2:
BREAKING as of Saturday 24 June: THE COUP IS DECLARED TO BE OVER | WAGNER IS RETREATING
Official statement from Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group and leader of the coup:
“They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.”
President Lukashenko of Belarus had reportedly been communicating with Prigozhin Friday and Saturday – Lukashenko is crediting himself for the peace agreement. Prigozhin accepted the terms of Lukashenko’s agreement and agreed to halt the movement of his forces and return back to his bases. The agreement also guarantees security for fighters of PMC Wagner. It appears that the attempted coup has ended – Prigozhin and his have spoken intentions to return to their bases.
Reports of Wagner forces not only leaving Moscow Oblas, but also leaving Rostov (the first city taken by Prigozhin). Russian media reports that criminal cases against Yevgeny have already been dropped and that he and his forces will receive full immunity. (Will Putin honour that?)
RUMINT: Some are saying the coup was staged to enhance Putin’s power. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
RUMINT: Some are saying the USD $6.2B “accounting error” recently reported by the U.S. in its aid to Ukraine went to Prigozhin to fund the coup, then he bailed on the deal. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I am saying I don’t know but am glad there was little to no bloodshed. I won’t make any public guesses except to say that potential U.S. assets in Russia are uncomfortable and could be vulnerable to U.S. overtures.
UPDATE 3:
June 26: More RUMINT: During the armed march, certain Russian military units switched to Prigozhin’s / Wagner’s side, including some Spetsaz special forces, who are trained to capture armed facilities including nuclear. In addition to some Spetsnaz units, some units related to the nuclear storage facility called Vornezh-45 switched to Prigozhins side. This include (inter alia) (i) Unit 14254: 387th Object “C” of the 12th Main Defense Ministry Directorate (nuclear) in the military town of Voronezh-45; (ii) border guards at Bugaevka checkpoint in Voronezh; and (iii) the Entire FSB Federal Border Service of the regional command center for Voronezh region of the Central Military District. Prigozhin has control of a major nuclear storage facility. It is said that since he got those nuclear facilities, he could end his offensive operations because he achieved his objectives. That’s his ace card.
UPDATE 4:
June 26: RUMINT from a solid source says that Putin will no longer be President of Russia and that there will be a deal between Russia and Ukraine favorable to Ukraine. PLEASE NOTE: There is a powerful secret group within Russia’s FSB (formerly the KGB) called “Winds of Change” which is anti-Putin, which could have been behind or worked with Prigozhin’s / Wagner’s march.
